Long but interesting read. A couple of points:
1. Russia is not a near-peer to NATO. If Putin eventually wears down Ukraine and tries anything with a NATO country, he will get pimp-slaped back to Kamchatcka. In a conventional war he stands about as much of a chance as did Russian tactics and equipment during Desert Storm. The 4,000 members of the 101st Airborne stationed along the Ukranian border alone could cut a swath through Russian units like a combine through a wheat field.
2. Apparently the writer of the long article has not visited Taiwan in the last 40 years or so. It is not a little Vietnam. The Taiwanese should be able to repel a Chinese attempted invasion with just a dab of help from the US Navy. China is still a mostly paper tiger. Taiwanese troops hate the mainland Chinese and will fight rabidly. They have quietly amassed quite an arsenal of modern weapons. Remember also, the Chinese have zero experience in pulling off an opposed amphibious invasion. Unless the Taiwanese anti-air systems are seriously degraded, any lumbering cargo craft carrying troops or equipment will be easy meat.
After all, the US won all the battles in Vietnam. We lost due to turncoat politicians. However, during their ill-fated invasion of Vietnam, the Chinese got their arses handed to them quite handily by the Vietnamese, even though China had no ocean water to cross. The Vietnamese did to China what they never did to the US, win the battles. Taiwan is just as motivated, trained by the USA and the advantage of making China have to bring cargo ships across a contended ocean route with US attack submarines waiting on them like piranha. The US fleet just needs targeting data from the Taiwanese to sink Chinese ships with missiles from a distance of 120 miles or more from the US fleet.