Democrat Pundit Starts to Come Back to Reality on Mid-Terms

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Ed Kilgore has re-evaluated the chances of Democrats dodging the Mid-Term curse and he’s not very hopeful.  What I found interesting was the discussion about the polls

“If you consider the polls from the outlets that were most accurate in 2020, the mixed prospects for the GOP look even better. Of the pollsters doing abundant 2022 public-survey work, Trafalgar Group was the most accurate in 2020 per FiveThirtyEight. Yes, Trafalgar has a well-deserved reputation for serving up results that please Republicans. But what if they are as right this year as they were two years ago? They show a lot of the GOP candidates already written off by most analysts as being still viable. Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters? Down by just two points, according to Trafalgar Group. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania? Ditto. The wildly extremist Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastrioni? Him too. All three of these alleged “losers” are within the margin of error in Trafalgar Group polls, which also show half-forgotten Minnesota Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen within three points of incumbent Tim Walz, left-for-dead Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon within four points of incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, and little-discussed Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea within five points of incumbent Michael Bennett.

Oh … and Trafalgar Group also shows Republicans with a six-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.”

And as far as the importance of abortion as an election issue this statement was very telling:

“A September 2022 NBC News poll bluntly asked voters whether a candidate’s position on “dealing with the cost of living” or on “the abortion issue” would most affect their choice. “Cost of living” was deemed more important by a 59-37 margin. And in rankings of the most important issue, NBC found that crime barely trails abortion as a voter concern (both ranking well below “jobs and the economy” and “cost of living”). The poll gave Republicans a 23-point advantage on crime and a 19-point advantage on the economy. Democrats do have a 22-point advantage on abortion policy, but it’s all in the mix.”

Mr. Kilgore tried to leave some room for optimism but you could tell his heart wasn’t in it.  So unless the voter fraud is industrial strength as it was in 2020 it looks like the Congress may flip to the republicans in November.

Well, we’ll see.

What Does Science Fiction Want for Our World Today?

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Back when my father was a kid science fiction was all about rockets to Mars, flying cars and atomic power.  The world would march forward in the same way that it had after science advanced in the generations before.  It would engineer applications for atomic power in the same way that earlier generations applied knowledge of chemistry and physics to create the internal combustion engine and airplanes.

When I was a kid science fiction had progressed to where relativity and quantum physics were assumed to be susceptible to human genius and no barriers were too tall to prevent humans from colonizing the stars, travelling through time and even traipsing into other dimensions.  Now this made for a lot of interesting stories about universes where humans could meet up with all kinds of amazing creatures and events.  But at some point, you have to wonder if the word “science” in the name science fiction should be changed to fantasy.  And that’s fine.  Having faster than light (FTL) travel opens up so many story lines for an author that it’s hard to resist.  Otherwise, we’re stuck with multi-generational ships depending on relativistic time dilation to reach the nearest stars in one or two hundred years.  Which, by the way, makes for a lot of very interesting sociological phenomena on the ship.  But anyway, you can see how FTL travel would be a very desirable pseudoscientific device.

But here we are something like a hundred years on in the “modern” science fiction timeline and we’re still engulfed in the FTL travel trope.  And we’re still nowhere near any kind of science that would lead us to believe that FTL travel is even remotely possible.  So, in my mind maybe science fiction needs to start looking at science again for inspiration for new themes.

Thinking about this, it’s not like there aren’t all sorts of scientific discoveries and avenues for new technologies that are not only possible but also exciting building blocks for science fiction stories.  In biology we have gene therapy and longevity research.  In computer science there is artificial intelligence and cybernetics.  The reality of atomic power as a replacement for fossil fuels is not really science fiction as much as fact but there are enough questions about how it will change the present world that it could provide plenty of fodder for stories.  And human exploration of the solar system is now much better understood than it was even back during the Apollo program.  Reimagining the directions that something like landing on Mars will take has already been a successful idea for one author who even saw it turned into a successful movie.

Perhaps some of this sounds a little tame for science fiction readers.  On the contrary, sticking to the reality of what it would take to put a small colony on Mars should allow a good author to engineer in plenty of human interest and adventure.  I could see how a story based on capturing and harvesting an asteroid filled with gold and platinum would make a very exciting tale.  A good author would include the part of the story that involves very rich and powerful individuals scheming to hold onto the profits from a mission that might include the most powerful nations on Earth claiming the assets as the “legacy of all mankind.”

So, this is something I’ve been thinking about lately.  Now I like space opera as much as the next guy.  I’m very comfortable with galactic empires and multiverse.  They’re great fun.  But I also think it’s time for some of the most creative writers to start adding some real science back into science fiction.

Handicapping November 2022

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Of late I’ve stated that the coming November elections will be a clear indicator of how much hope there remains for the American political system.  My often-repeated basis for this statement is that the various progressive organizations have totally dropped the mask and exposed their disregard for all legitimate behavior.  And by this, I mean the activities of the last two or three years during which we were exposed to complete loss of freedom during the COVID lockdowns, the collusion between the federal government and the tech companies to silence and punish dissenting opinions, the selective enforcement of laws by the Justice Department.  In addition, with the outbreak of stagflation history informs us that the party in power is always punished severely by the electorate.

Based on this situation we find ourselves in, I would assume that if the American electoral process is still functioning, the Democrats would be handed strong losses in both the House and Senate.  Currently the polls indicate that the Republicans will reclaim the House with a ten to twenty seat majority.  The Senate is much closer with current estimates indicating that the Republicans will take two seats and have a slim majority.  To my mind that is hardly the outcome to be expected when every indicator of government failure is flashing bright red.  To my mind this indicates that the system has stopped working.

But to be fair I think I should define what I think would be a functioning result of the political system in these mid-terms.  As far as absolute numbers I’d say that the House would have to give the Republicans a forty-seat majority.  And the Senate wouldn’t provide that lop-sided a change but I would expect to see all the purple state contests go to the Republicans.  That would be Arizona, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Georgia and Nevada.  In addition, I’d expect to see a couple of governors of blue states getting ejected.  Specifically Wisconsin and Michigan should be looking to boot out their governors.

So that’s my definition of a healthy American electoral response to the dysfunction and malfeasance that has been on display by the Democrats in the last few years.  If something resembling this response occurs, I will be heartily encouraged that maybe we can vote our way out of this.  Then it will be up to these politicians to use the people’s mandate to begin holding Biden and company accountable for their reckless misuse of our government.  I’d expect investigations to conclude with an impeachment of at least Biden.  Of course, we won’t have the votes in the Senate to convict him but it will show responsibility on the part of the House.  And it will set the stage for replacing Biden in 2024 with a Republican (Donald Trump) who intends to repair the damage.

But if we end up with the ten-seat majority in the House and a one or two seat majority in the Senate I’ll consider that proof that the United States is no longer able to change course in response to disaster.  Whether this is the result of widespread voter fraud or due to a majority of the electorate having been bought off by the promise of free stuff really doesn’t matter.  The outcome will be the same.  Democrat control of the United States federal government will be assured.

And if that’s the case I will spend my time looking for a Plan B.  whether that’s a red state or a different country depends on how the red states stand up to the feds.  There have been some positive signs in Florida and Texas.  Maybe they’ll move forward with these actions and establish their states as sanctuaries for freedom loving Americans.  Maybe they’ll expand this by joining with neighboring states to form a freedom zone within the United States.  It could be a very large zone.

But that’s a story for the future, after November.  First things first.

21SEP2022 – Quote of the Day

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In regard to propaganda the early advocates of universal literacy and a free press envisaged only two possibilities: the propaganda might be true, or it might be false. They did not foresee what in fact has happened, above all in our Western capitalist democracies—the development of a vast mass communications industry, concerned in the main neither with the true nor the false, but with the unreal, the more or less totally irrelevant. In a word, they failed to take into account man’s almost infinite appetite for distraction.

Aldous Huxley

Some Republicans Finally Embracing Pro-Family Economics

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Even the stupid party is finally waking up to the fact that we can help our side by embracing public policy that favors stay at home moms.  It requires a degree of intelligence to craft laws that help one-paycheck families without feeding the machine that currently sucks up trillions of dollars for the sake of welfare cases.  But it can be done.

This article describes the outline of policies that would support working families that want mom at home to make it a home for young children.  Child tax credits and other forms of tax relief are a beginning.  But what is needed is a new way for government to measure economic prosperity.  The raising of children as an economic outcome has to be valued as a higher good than the economic value produced by forcing a woman into the workforce so that she can pay for her children to be attended by day care centers and pre-K education.

And once people start looking at the hidden costs for making children prohibitively expensive, we can quickly find the money needed to prevent it.  The United States compensates for the low child birth rate by allowing enormous numbers of illegal immigrants.  These are poor, uneducated and often criminal individuals who require enormous support payments in the shape of government support for housing, food, schooling and health care costs.

If all these dollars were transferred to ensuring that American parents have what it takes to afford a middle-class existence on one salary there would be plenty of money left over to pay down the national debt.  According to the article, even that idiot Mitt Romney is open to some of the ideas that pro-family economics espouse.

So, here’s a tiny white pill to make the day a little better.