Author: photog

Guest Contributor – Tregonsee – 17NOV2025 – Handicapping a Civil War

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The thought of a civil war is VERY messy. My (limited) familiarity is that I’d say 80% of the enlisted tend to be from the poorer (bottom 3-4) deciles of the population. The upper enlisted officers tend to come from families that have been in the services for a long time. They are more from the red/purple areas than deep blue. Officer Corp is more split(again from my very limited experience), Flag officers are VERY political and Obama’s purge of the flag ranks (as well as Col. ready to promote) means there is a very blue tinge at the top. Lower rank officers likely come from families that have traditions of service and come from more traditionally conservative backgrounds as the militery calling is pooh poohed by the Left. Pretty sure neither red nor blue troops would kill civilians without severe provocation. Most would also not participate in massive disarmament of citizens. I think the latter ends up with mutinies and fragging of officers, with enlisted disappearing off into the bush. That said, the Left has its own shock troops in the armed bits and bobs of Antifa/Pantifa and other similar groups. They are far less morally bound than the members of the armed services. Would the National Guard and LEO stand back and let them go at it? Beats me, I’m not eager to find out.

As for strategic resources, the blue states have an issue. I think all the missile bases, plus Whitman AFB (B2, soon B21) are in red states). The Atlantic Boomer base is in a red state (no boomers run out of Groton CT any more), Pacific Boomer base is at Bremerton WA but would that matter? Boomers are odd they really try hard to stay at sea for long periods before switching crews. In a Red/Blue divorce, the Reds end up with most of the fixed ( Missile assets). I doubt the Red would disarm, given the Ukraine precedent.

Honestly any scenario I see tends to be rife with insurgencies. Blue in the more rural parts of Red would have massive hit and run attacks on them by light arms. Red going into citified areas will have Viet Cong like insurgents blending into the populous (with either the populous supporting them or by threatening the populous.

I just can’t create an Arisian like vision of the cosmic all on this one. If I were using the old magic 8 ball I’d be getting “Better ask again” or “Reply Hazy, try again”. The only thing I can say is I deeply doubt your model of a looser coalition, it seems very doubtful. Much of the Blue side views this as almost a theological/eschatological vision. There are as likely to live and let live as the 16th-century Spanish Inquisition. Certainly, there are parts of them that don’t believe (all) their nonsense. But those parts know that if they divert from the path, they are likely to find an ice pick in their forehead like a good menshivik.

Guest Contributor – Ed Brault – 17NOV2025 – RAH on “Bread and Circuses”

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“The America of my time line is a laboratory example of what can happen to democracies, what has eventually happened to all perfect democracies throughout all histories. A perfect democracy, a ‘warm body’ democracy in which every adult may vote and all votes count equally, has no internal feedback for self-correction. It depends solely on the wisdom and self-restraint of citizens… which is opposed by the folly and lack of self-restraint of other citizens. What is supposed to happen in a democracy is that each sovereign citizen will always vote in the public interest for the safety and welfare of all. But what does happen is that he votes his own self-interest as he sees it… which for the majority translates as ‘Bread and Circuses.’
‘Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”― Robert A. Heinlein

Reading the National Tea-Leaves

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I think the experience of the last several decades of American politics has made it clear that there are two completely different and, in some ways, diametrically opposed cultures existing within this country.  And it’s also clear to me that they cannot coexist.  How this will play out is not obvious.  I can think of a few scenarios as to how this will evolve but which one will actually happen is unknown to me.

First, I guess is the possibility that the status quo will go on forever.  I find this scenario the least likely.  The amount of psychological damage being done to the country is extreme and anger that is starting to build up is starting to break out into acts of extreme violence.  Look at what’s happening with psychotic individuals committing mass murders just to protest against political and social conditions.  It seems to me that of its own accord the current situation will fall apart in a very few years.

The second possibility is that the two sides break into open hostilities.  I think this is a likely short-term result.  The range of hostilities can stretch from low level guerilla activities all the way up to organized warfare on a national scale.  And it can also wax and wane.  I think that warfare of whatever type is also a temporary situation.  I think one way it could be settled would be for an agreement to loosen the terms of the federal government to allow both sides to control life within their own jurisdictions.  So, the red states will be red and the blue states will be blue.  So, by allowing the two sides to live the way they want on their home turf, it permits them to allow for the not-so United States to continue as an entity.

Another outcome would be a split of the United States into two separate countries.  And of course, there would be a national divorce that allowed for the divvying up of the family assets.  So, both sides would get a certain number of thermonuclear warheads and nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers and maybe someone would win a coin toss and get to keep the name United States and the US Dollar and Washington DC (although I think the red states will be happy to part with that last item).

Now there is one other outcome that I haven’t listed.  And that is where one side or the other wins a complete victory on the battle field and forces the losing side to live under the conditions that the winning side dictates.  And to be honest I don’t think that for both sides would want that outcome.  If the red states won an all-out war, I think they would use the victory to force a separation into two states.  Of course, being on the winning side, I could imagine it would be a division that favored their side pretty generously but, in any case, I think they would be glad to extricate themselves from the union with the blue states.  On the other hand, I think the blue states do want to dominate the red states and if they won a military victory, they would use the situation to force their ideology on the red states.

So, this is a pretty bleak prognosis.  But I think it is accurate.  I guess the most optimistic scenario is that after a very brief and relatively minor war the two sides decide to stay together under a looser confederation.  This is actually my hope.  What do you think?

Oh, Woe is Me

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My life is already getting hectic again.  I’m working on getting my book cover drawn and I think I’ve found the artist.  He’s a fellow in France and his drawings are very skillful and artistic.  Much better than I need but I think it makes sense to have a talented person handling something that I’m completely unqualified to do.  My concept is a black and white sketch of a sniper on a rooftop aiming down at an antifa riot where one rioter in black bloc is getting ready to knife a business owner trying to protect his storefront from the rioters.  It’s basically a scene from the book.

Of course, not being someone who can draw I don’t have a feel for the sense of perspective and how that would affect the relative sizes of the several figures in the scene.  That probably will dictate where the vantage point of the viewer should be.  But that’s why I want someone skilled working out those kinds of questions.

And suddenly there are all kinds of details I’m thinking about.  Is launching a book before, during or after the Christmas shopping season the best time for an independent author?  Should I explicitly sub-title the book as a series?  And what about my nom de plume?  I’ve come up with a few names and they seem to break into two groups; rugged or literary.  As an example, compare Jack Fader versus Julian Lesage.  So many details, so little attention span.

So I’m busy with all of this stuff but the day job is being super annoying just when I thought it would be giving me a break.  Oh, the pain, the pain.  And simultaneously, the family holidays are coming up so I have to help Camera Girl prepare for the festivities.  So, this week I’ve been cleaning up the yard and putting stuff away and winterproofing the vulnerable areas of the Compound.  And every year that list grows.  I noticed today that a small back gate to one of the fences was blown right off its hinges by a windstorm this week.  I knew it was weakened but I thought it would last a little while longer.  But now I’ve got to do something permanent about it.

And this morning I’m sitting with Camera Girl in the dining room and looking out on a screened in porch I see some kind of medium sized bird fluttering around in the porch.  The wind blew open the magnetized doorway of the curtain just long enough for the bird to find its way in but not long enough for it to escape so I had to go to its rescue.  I arranged for its escape but did I get even a thank you from the ungrateful avian?  Nope.  Not even a friendly chirp.  But going out there brought to my attention just how much dust and dirt had built up on the deck.  There are whole areas of this place that I don’t set foot in for seasons at a time.  I do live in a very strange and inefficient place.

Well, now that I’ve complained about the problems I’m surrounded by and shared them with you, I feel a little better.

COVID Investigation

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We may be getting close to proving that the CIA and the US Health agencies were an important part of the COVID pandemic.

Ralph Baric, the world’s top coronavirus researcher, discussed “human adaptation” of coronaviruses with the CIA before Covid began

“Years before Sars-COV-2 emerged from China, Dr. Ralph Baric — a North Carolina virologist who worked closely with the Chinese lab that is the likely source of the virus — met with American spies to discuss the “human adaptation” of coronaviruses.

Emails released by Kentucky senator Rand Paul reveal the meetings, which again raise the question of whether American spies are protecting Baric and covering up their own possible role in risky Chinese lab work that likely caused Covid.

Now Paul is pushing the agencies for more documents that may finally offer an answer — nearly six years after Covid began.”

You might say, “Does it matter anymore?”  I think the answer is yes.

Now, let me be clear.  I doubt that anyone will go to prison.  I’m sure the spooks and their Democratic partners have scrubbed all the really damning documents and all that’s left is a trail of crumbs leading to Anthony Fauci.  But I still think that a Congressional Investigation report followed by a DOJ report naming as many names as possible would go a long way to vindicating all the suspicions we felt during the COVID scam.

The article stated, “Although Baric has publicly dodged making definitive statements on his view of Covid’s origins, the emails that Paul released show that Baric worried from the first that a lab leak might have been responsible.

In late January, he warned a secret American intelligence group of the risk of “accidental release,” noting that the Wuhan lab had worked on highly infectious coronaviruses in “BSL2 [Biosafety Level 2] conditions” — laboratories not designed to handle such transmissible viruses.”

Reading this article it’s utterly clear that Fauci was completely aware of the lab leak origin of COVID and that the Biden administration did everything in their power to suppress the truth about COVID’s origin and the culpability of American government agents (including the CIA) with the Wuhan disaster.

I hope that Rand Paul does his utmost to keep this investigation from being squelched.  Being a medical doctor he’s familiar with the scientific and medical facts about virology and the kinds of research that is normally performed as a part of vaccine production and can differentiate it from the malpractice that we saw with the “gain-of-function” modification of bat corona viruses.

I’m convinced that what was going on was the production of a bio-weapon by either the CIA or some other entity involved in Wuhan.  Luckily the weapon was a dud.  Probably the RNA vaccine that was created to counter it was more dangerous than the original COVID virus but what’s really important is that such research is going on in places like Wuhan and at the behest of the US federal government.  Whether you are comfortable with the idea of the CIA building bioweapons, it can’t be good policy for it to be going on in a third-rate laboratory under the control of the Chinese Communist party.

I don’t have high hopes for this investigation but in a better world, those responsible for this fiasco would be exposed to the light of day and then sent to prison for decades for what they’ve done.