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Possibly this will be a result that may hasten the end of this war. But we’ll have to see. The West is now talking about a stalemate because they don’t see a victory for Ukraine. They predict a standoff like in Korea. It’s not clear to me that the Russians feel the same way about their chances of winning.
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #BakhmutHasFallen The result of one of the bloodiest battles in the 21st century. pic.twitter.com/39oAeNNlYK
— The Balkan Independent (@BalkanInd) May 20, 2023
The Russians have pushed the Ukrainian troops out of the last of the high rise buildings in the west of Bakhmut. Currently the Ukrainians are contesting areas north and south of the city. There are estimates that the Ukrainian forces west of Bakhmut number between 10,000 and 30,000. There is speculation that instead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive occurring in the south it might instead occur around Bakhmut.
The video footage I’ve seen of the city as it currently exists is shocking. If Bakhmut had received a one megaton nuclear detonation at the center of the city it would not look any more devastated than it currently does. Except for the skeletons of a few high rise buildings at the western edge, it’s been reduced to pulverized rubble.
What’s going on there is madness. This is civil war.
Panorama of Bakhmut taken from a drone pic.twitter.com/Ko8oXkzZWX
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 24, 2023
As can be seen in the satellite photo below, the Russians (in red) have almost completed the painfully slow process of ejecting the Ukrainians from Bakhmut by reducing the city to rubble via artillery bombardment. The Ukrainians are probably down to a few thousand soldiers with the bulk having already retreated out of Bakhmut to the nearby towns of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske.
But supposedly the final stronghold is structurally reinforced and may even be hiding a tunnel system out of the city. Previously it was believed that this stronghold of tall apartment buildings was being held by some of the most battle-hardened professionals in the Ukraine forces. Whether that is still the case is unknown. But the fighting at this point may even be harder and bloodier than what came before in this already grueling battle.
The Ukrainians are attempting to hold onto the town until after May 9th which is the anniversary (in Russia) of the end of WWII in Europe. They want to deny Russia the propaganda boost that the date represents in the Russian mind. Looks like it could go either way.
After the end of the Bakhmut conflict it is widely believed that the Ukrainian counterattack will commence. Well, that is if the ground dries out sufficiently for heavy vehicles to move easily through the mud. Apparently the rain for the last couple of weeks has rendered the fields impassable. Hell of a war they’ve (or we’ve) got going there.
The mapping sites following the Ukraine war now show the encirclement of Bakhmut by the Russians reaching a critical stage where the two remaining paved roads that allow re-supply of men and materiel and retreat of vehicles, are under fire control by the Russian positions.
The descriptions I’ve listened to by Ukrainian soldiers of the situation on the ground are horrific. The combat situation consists of small groups of Ukrainians hunkered down in sheltered positions and Russians sending small patrols to draw their fire followed by artillery and mortar fire being used to dislodge or destroy those Ukrainian positions. They say morale is rock bottom. They describe what seems like endless barrages of artillery forcing them to retreat to new positions day in and day out.
Grim stuff.
Update:
Warpig’s analysis:
“Standard Russian tactics. Little change from WWII other than the range of missiles and artillery. Putin and his commanders care little about casualties. They just bombard everything, including civilians and hospitals and children, then throw masses of infantry and tanks at the target. That wouldn’t work against NATO but Russia carefully picks less capable targets. NATO would hand them their heinies, especially in air supremacy. But Zelinski is short on air power. Russia is corrupt and incompetent but they have a crapload of artillery and conscripts, and numbers can be a power of their own. I would love to be the US commander of a division if Russia tried to invade Poland, but as a Ukranian, not so much.”
When a Democrat organ like Politico announces problems between Washington and Kiev I think you can assume the honeymoon is over and finger-pointing is about to commence.
“Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring.”
The Ukrainians have allowed themselves to be encircled in the ruins of Bakhmut and now it’s believed that at the very least they will have to abandon their heavy weaponry there. And there are real concerns that several thousand men are also trapped there too.
“Meanwhile, an assessment by U.S. intelligence suggested that a “pro-Ukraine group” was responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last fall, shedding light on a great mystery. The new intelligence, first reported by The New York Times, was short on details but appeared to knock down a theory that Moscow was responsible for sabotaging the pipelines that delivered Russian gas to Europe.”
This assertion seems very odd because it’s assumed that the US military blew up these pipelines. Perhaps this is a fairy tale they’re telling to give the German Chancellor cover over his support of Washington. The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines was a crippling blow to the German economy.
“There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. Though most in the administration have been understanding about Kyiv’s desperation to defend itself, there have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude, according to two White House officials not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.”
Regardless of Washington’s intent, the unavailability of artillery rounds in the quantity that would offset the Russians seemingly inexhaustible supply is the sticking point. Russia is grinding down what’s left of the Ukrainian army and even Abrams tanks and Patriot missiles isn’t going to help with this problem. Existential panic is starting to set in. Soon Zelenskyyyyyyyy may begin practicing his impression of Hitler in the bunker. Being a comedian maybe he can make it more entertaining than the version from the movie “Downfall,“
We live in the proverbial “interesting times” of the Chinese saying. Joe Biden twists and wriggles in the slime that is his element, excreting lies into his surroundings as naturally as an octopus discharges ink to confuse its enemies. Woke banks crash, even more woke crypto exchanges are revealed as Ponzi schemes and Biden will declare that unless he can raise taxes by six trillion dollars the United States will descend into fiscal anarchy. I’m curious if Keven McCarthy has the cast iron stones it would take to call his bluff. I guess we’re about to find out.
I read that Saudi Arabia and Iran have decided to bury the hatchet. This rapprochement was brokered by the Chinese and is just another indicator of how the United States is no longer the center of global diplomacy. China and Russia are now routinely consulting with the Indians and the Saudis about trade and energy and the United States is definitely an outsider in these discussions. In fact, in many cases the consultations are about avoiding Washington’s meddling in their affairs.
The Ukrainian war drags on with Russia using cruise and hypersonic missiles to cripple Ukraine’s electrical grid and rail system in advance of the long heralded Ukrainian spring offensive. Now that Russia is at the point of collapsing Ukraine’s hold on the regional rail and road hub at Bakhmut through a glacially slow encirclement action it will be more difficult than ever for the Ukrainians to bring up supplies and troops from the West until sometime in May. The spring thaw will render anything but paved roads completely impassable for tanks and other heavy fighting equipment such as the Bradley vehicles.
Based on what I’ve learned from watching the winter campaign, the Russians are using a very slow advance in conjunction with massive artillery bombardment to pulverize the Ukrainian army one square block at a time. Because of the Ukraine’s policy of contesting every square inch of territory the Russian artillery strategy produces continuous casualties. And with the estimate that western artillery shell stockpiles will be completely depleted by sometime this summer, the Ukrainians will be in a very difficult position with respect to defending many of the larger cities in Donbass such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. There has also been speculation around Russia attempting to occupy Odessa and possibly reabsorb the breakaway Moldovan province of Transdniestria.
Many people wonder how this whole thing started. Well, all of this is the State Department’s brain child. Along with the CIA they sponsored the color revolution in Ukraine and funded the buildup of weapons and bunkers that have brought us to the present conflict. And even as they continue to antagonize a country with a massive nuclear arsenal, they consider this outcome a success.
And every day we are treated to the spectacle of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the rest of the cavalcade of clowns slowly destroying whatever is still left of the United States. Rail cars full of toxins burn in American cities, Mexican drug cartels murder American citizens with impunity, small businesses are folding up and dying by the millions and local communities and their citizens struggle to pay their fuel bills and buy food.
I guess Joe Biden has adopted the same strategy that the Russians are using against the Ukrainians. He will just use a constant bombardment of misery against his own people until they just collapse, roll up and die. It seems like a winning strategy. It’s agonizingly slow and painful but hey what the heck! He has to fill up the year and a half until the next election and there’s no way he can fix all the stuff he’s destroyed. He might as well finish the job and destroy the rest of the country. I suppose if your life has been destroyed and you’ve lost everything, voting won’t be a high priority. So, he won’t even have to do much voter fraud this time around. A real win/win.
Well, today is a chore day. I’ve got to scrape away the inch of snow off the driveways in anticipation of the eight inches due tomorrow night. It won’t take long but it breaks up the morning and gives me an excuse to skip my exercise.
Princess Sack of Potatoes is staying over this weekend and we’ve had an abbreviated game of Dead Pile already. But I’ve begun the pivot to reading and writing. She’s got those workbooks that can be dry erased so we’re working on printing the letters. Later on we’ll conquer the “at” family again. And we’ll use that convicted racist Dr. Seuss to hammer home the words.
I read with dismay that Brad Paisley has recorded as song in honor of Zelenskyyyyyyyy. Oh, well. I remember he had an Obama song too so apparently trying to toe the line is standard operating procedure for him. Too bad. He has some fun songs.
I’ve been following some of the various websites following the Ukraine war. I think the latest theory is that the Russians intend to use the “glacier” model. They’re going to pulverize the Ukraine army but at a glacial rate of advance. Their assault on Bakhmut is proceeding at about one square mile a day. But depending on sources some number of hundreds of Ukrainian casualties a day are occurring. At the current rate in about two weeks the city will be completely surrounded and cut off from resupply. At that point the Ukrainian soldiers inside will be faced with the choice of surrender or extermination.
Apparently the Russians have decided that wearing the Ukrainians down is the correct strategy. Blitzkriegs are no longer possible in this age of real time remote target identification. A column of tanks can be spotted and destroyed from five hundred miles away. The other problem for the Ukrainians is the fact that we’re running out of munitions to give them. By the summer we’ll have used up our entire stockpile of artillery ammunition and the Ukrainians will have to reduce their artillery firing rate to a small fraction of their enemy’s.
Funny world we live in. Looking at the tactics and objectives of their rule I’d have to say that the policies of the present United States more closely resembles that of the Soviet Union than the present day Russian Federation does. Isn’t that a remarkable thing. Well, if we can manage to avoid setting off a thermonuclear war perhaps a time will come when we can pry the United States foreign policy away from the neocons and find a way to coexist with the Russians and the Chinese that allows each nation to follow its interests without a shooting war breaking out every few months. I know it’s far-fetched but an old man can hope can’t he?
Well, hopefully later on I’ll think of something reasonable to write about. Enjoy your Sunday.
Thank you for the polite words on my analysis of this story out of Ukraine. I didn’t notice until this morning that you had reposted it here, which I always appreciate.
A few more thoughts on this as I have had some time to ruminate on this subject:
While I dislike the overused phrase, “As a (fill-in-the-blank with race/religion/career/etc.)” it does have merit for expertise and review of situations when applied correctly. So, as a veteran of OEF/OIF with 20+ years of military and DOD experience, as well as a student of history, the circumstances and scenarios that occur during wartime are of great interest to me. I feel that I can bring unique perspectives to the table in these areas.
The application of labels to the Ukraine-Russia situation as if it is a stark good/evil dichotomy ignores the reality that conflicts between countries are never that simplistic. People who could not find Ukraine on a globe last year are now pontificating as ‘experts’ on foreign policy and geopolitical affairs. While most act as if history began around the time Myspace came online, the historical details around that region are complex and full of nuance to how we find ourselves where we are today. These are VERY tense times that require Realpolitik and deft hands skilled in diplomacy. The current administration has not shown evidence so far that they have these skills.
As I am certain you already know, one caveat to that is to be wary of the number of retired generals and such that are employed by the news networks. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox are notorious for trotting out these empty suits to give what is alleged to be insights that are at an Oracle level. Amazing how more often than not, their opinions aligned with either Administration goals, or the boards they sat on as paid advisers for defense companies.
It’s the story of a Ukrainian mayor who had the choice of handing over a downed Russian pilot to the Russian troops occupying his city or committing cold-blooded murder. And it gets even more complicated. If he decides to spare the man’s life then he will be branded a traitor and punished if the Ukrainians retake the territory.
As I commented on Arthur’s site, it seems to me that the Ukrainians who find themselves living permanently under the Russian authority are the biggest winners in this whole thing. They’ll end up under a more stable and slightly less corrupt government.
The Ukrainian war is a taste of things to come. Globalists are looking to eliminate nationality. Russia and China are the thorniest problems. They have nuclear weapons and they don’t like the rainbow coalition stuff that Washington and Brussels are so enamored with. If Russia manages to have its way in the Ukraine it will be a powerful refutation of the inevitability of the New World Order. And from my point of view that would be “a consummation devoutly to be wish’d.” It would give hope to countries like Hungary that want to maintain their identity and ways of life in the face of globalism’s creepy anti-normal beliefs. And it would give hope to us that the progressives have overreached in our own country.
Kudos to Arthur on his thought provoking post.
Yesterday was a very good day. American Greatness (AG) ran that post I wrote on the possibility of a multi-ethnic country preserving American constitutional freedoms. And on top of that, Whatfinger linked to both the AG article and the post about it that I put up on OCF. That drove a large amount of web traffic to OCF and to AG. And the comments at both sites were very lively. The AG commenters were a mixture of dissidents, conservatives and even a couple of progressives who took a lot of flak. I think the discussion was interesting. And I hope it pointed some new readers in our direction. After all every website needs some new blood to make up for attrition. By my accounting I only need 9,997,000 more readers to reach my goal of domination over the right-wing blogosphere. But Rome wasn’t built in a day. I’ll bide my time.
All the heat will be on McCarthy going into the budget wars. We will hear the media declare him a monster who wants to destroy the United States by defaulting on the US debts. I’m very interested in seeing how much courage he can muster in the face of the attacks coming his way. I wonder if he will replace Trump as the new Hitler. It’s probably inevitable. The upside is that Biden may actually stroke out during one of his demented harangues. If he does it on live tv that would be wonderful theater.
But I haven’t figured out if Biden randomly dropping dead is better or worse for the Democrats’ succession plan. Think of it. Harris becomes president. That level of stupid controlling the most powerful country on the planet might drive us to the singularity we’re always hearing about. Starting at the point where she tries to repeat the oath of office, the White House could be sucked into a black hole of negative intelligence followed by the rest of the solar system. Alpha Centauri should be relatively safe.
I wonder what that would be like. After we each crash through the event horizon would our quarks meld into Harris’ and would our essence then become as stupid as she is through quantum entanglement? It’s too frightening to consider. Or would our consciousness remain distinct but trapped for the rest of the life of the universe with someone endlessly spewing out drivel about a little girl sitting on a school bus. That’s pretty close to hell.
But I digress, as usual.
We’ve run out of Chinese balloons but there’s no shortage of Russian artillery. It appears that the long anticipated Russian offensive in the Donbass is beginning. First up is a town called Bakhmut which over the last few weeks has been very gradually encircled. Real information is hard to find but apparently even the Ukrainians are beginning to prepare their side to the eventuality of Bakhmut’s capture by the Russians. After that it looks like more consolidation and then the next encirclement, probably Siver’sk. Boy, these Slavic placenames are difficult to figure. And I noticed several towns close to each other with the same name. That can’t be right. There must be some modifiers to allow the locals to distinguish between these places. Anyway, it looks like the pace is picking up in this slow-motion war. More misery.
Well, that’s enough for now. Let’s see what’s the next big thing this week. Have a good night.