Putting Things in Perspective – Part 2 – Civil War Analogy

After discussing the Revolutionary War last time, the next major historical comparison I’d like to look at is the one comparing our situation to the mid-nineteenth century American Civil War.  In this comparison the Left is equated with the historical “North” and the Right with the “South.”

We’ll start with things that do align in this comparison.  The cultural and intellectual elites of the Abolitionist Movement do line up well with the modern Left.  In fact, there is probably a decent number among today’s Woke Left that are direct descendants from the Abolitionists themselves.  And certain historians believe that the culture of New England and its exports to areas like the Great Lakes area and the Pacific Coast states have preserved the viewpoint and authority of the nineteenth century elites from that region of the country.  From that point of view there is a certain direct analogy between the Northern Abolitionist Leadership and the Modern Left.

But let’s look at some of the other factors.  First of all, let’s look at the driving force of the cause.  The Abolitionists wanted to end slavery.  It’s hard to over stress just how popular this cause was.  It was evident to even many Southerners that slavery was an evil that could not be justified by its benefits to the economy.  For a country whose whole existence is expressed in the single word freedom, slavery is anathema.  Therefore, the moral underpinnings of the Civil War were very powerful.  Certainly, the Southern States were able to muster a justification for the practice of slavery but at no time did this justification convince anyone outside of the South and not even everyone inside.  So, the abolition of slavery was a cause that resonated broadly around the United States outside of the Deep South.

But look at the current agenda of the Woke Left.  It is a rag tag grab bag of radical ideas and identity politics grievances that isn’t even rationally self-consistent.  Feminism and even lesbian feminism are at odds with transgender “rights.”  And the BLM agenda of eliminating the police won’t stand scrutiny by other communities like Asians and Hispanics now that they see that it equates to wholesale criminal anarchy.  It is far from certain that even in the “Blue States” that the whole agenda of the radical Left is entirely acceptable.  This is a major difference between the Civil War situation.  The Left’s agenda today is far less popular than the abolition of slavery was back then.

The next consideration is the location of each “side.”  The Confederacy was never able to convince even some of the slave states to join in its revolt.  The border states Kentucky, Missouri and Maryland never seceded.  And even an area of Virginia refused to join and “seceded” from Virginia to become West Virginia and remain with the Union.  Inside the free states there weren’t any large areas that would have joined the South or opposed the abolition of slavery for the most part.

But look at today.  Instead, the Red and Blue States are only an indicator of the majority status of each side in a state.  But geographically we can see that this is really a city versus countryside polarization.  The cities in the Red States are full of Leftists for the most part and even deep Blue States like California and New York have rural areas that are completely red.  This definitely helps our side.  These concentrated populations of Leftists work well when you want to cheat during an election but it doesn’t help much when you are trying to control a population that is diffused over thousands of square miles in some cases.  Controlling the back country especially when it is adjacent to a Red State may turn out to be an impossible job.

And finally in the 1860’s the slave states were so afraid of a Republican holding the White House that they seceded before Lincoln could even assemble his government.  We’ve seen two truly woke administration already.  Obama and now Biden.  And Biden is using all the force of the federal government to destroy our way of life.  But what it seems to show is that determined state leaders can use the state laws to combat these Woke orders and possibly nullify their effects without having to leave the Union.  This is still a preliminary evaluation but I think it is worth seeing if the lessons learned from Sanctuary Cities can be applied to other issues like Second Amendment Rights and First Amendment Freedoms.

So, from the point of view comparison, it seems to me that our side is significantly better off in the present situation than the South was during the Civil War.  And that is definitely a thing to be happy about.

Noem in South Dakota is Going to Have to Make Up Her Mind

South Dakota’s legislative bodies wrote a law to keep boys and men from competing in school sports as women.  Fearing that the NCAA and their corporate sponsors would punish South Dakota she caved and attempted to neuter the bill at the collegiate level.  That bill has now died in the veto override process.  Noem has supposedly covered the two age groups, college and pre-college, with separate executive orders to achieve the same effect as the original bill and is reconvening the legislature in May to address this issue again.

So, what happened here?  I think the firestorm of criticism that she received from conservatives has frightened her.  She has been rightly applauded for her intelligent and courageous handling of the COVID crisis.  This has raised her national profile to a level where lots of people are mentioning her as in the running for the 2024 republican presidential nomination.  The last thing she can afford to do is look like a waffler on a social conservative hot button issue.  This is very similar to what happened to Mike Pence when he had to walk back the religious freedom law in Indiana when the LGBTQ mafia threatened him.  I think what she’s hoping to do is get a do-over.  I think she knows now there is no way to finesse this thing.  If she takes a strong stand and the federal government comes after her, she’s still better off than just caving ahead of time.  Plus, several states have also signed similar legislation.  Joining with them to come up with a united front to promote their position and maybe brain-storm a common strategy to combat the federal attack is a reasonable approach.

Even if Governor Noem does manage to walk back her earlier cowardice I don’t have confidence that she’ll have the courage it will take to stare down the feds once the guaranteed Supreme Court betrayal occurs.  But it is possible that one of the other governors will have the cojones to tell Washington where to go.  That would be something to see and could act as the first example of state nullification of unconstitutional federal laws.

At this point I think it’s only a fifty-fifty chance that any of these politicos have the grit to stand their ground but at least it shouldn’t take too long before we know the answer.  And from my point of view that’s all we’re looking at here.  We’re waiting to see if there is any leader who wants us to rally around him.  The common people are no match for the KGB.  We don’t have the resources to win a war against a well-armed and well-organized secret police force.  It’s going to take the legitimately elected governor of a state along with the backing of the legislature and people of a state to stand down the FBI when a gangster administration decides to crush us.  That’s what it will take.  But do those things exist anywhere in this country?  I assume we are about to find out.  And once we find out that answer each of us can then make our own decision.

So good luck Kristi Noem.  Choose wisely.  Your political career and a lot more depends on whether you pass the test you are about to take.  You flubbed it the first time but you’re going to get a do-over.  Don’t waste the chance.